Analysis Agenda – May 14th 2013

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week-ahead

Legislative recess and the slow start of local electoral campaigns in the country have resulted in a relatively quiet first half of May. Some might argue that it is irresponsible to belittle the Pact of Mexico’s “rebirth”. However, something that only entered a whimsical lethargy cannot be taken for resurrected. Worse yet when the very low prices (if any) that the federal government had to pay in order to discuss its reform with opposition parties. Currently, a complex issue that should be carefully reviewed as not to get lost with the political slowdown for the coming weeks: the financial reform. Apparently, there will be time to be informed about this fundamental initiative in Mexican economy, but it should be done right and not take anyone by surprise.

1-The Mexican financial system’s “repair”? Formed by 13 different initiatives that include more than 30 laws and rules, the financial reform has been advertised as the solution that the country has been waiting in order to attain better credit terms, stronger development banking, higher certainty in foreign investments and efficient bodies capable of protecting financial services’ users. The truth is that the complexity of all the proposed legal changes urges a deeper analysis. At the expense of what will credit be “flexible”? What role should development banking play within a global system while giving a boost to the economy? In what way can a balance be found between users’ needs and the companies’ profitability? Don’t these reforms need to be complemented with financial education programs for active and potential users?

2-The addendum to the Pact for Mexico: an invisible darning? On May 7, PAN and PRD formally returned to working tables and official acts of the Pact for Mexico. This was done after signing an addendum to the agreement, which focused on guaranteeing transparency, equity and fairness on the local elections that will take place in the next July. When reviewing the annex, one can see that it only endorses obligations already established by law for political actors in election season, such as suspending social supports 45 days before polls open, implementing regulations on protection of the electoral process and giving transparency to the use of financial resources in states and municipalities. Then, what are the addendum signatories actually gaining? How does the addendum make the Pact less fragile with the coming electoral problems?

3-Teacher’s Day… without “Teacher” Gordillo. On May 15, the national Teachers Union will celebrate its most important date without the presence of Elba Esther Gordillo for the first time in 24 years, Within the framework of an educational reform that is yet to be regulated and applied, the Teachers Union is going through an unprecedented moment for a generation. Certainly, the new leadership of SNTE (National Union of Education Workers), headed by Juan Díaz de la Torre, has proved to be aligned with policies of the federal government. However, the belligerence between sectors of the union, such as the 22nd section from Oaxaca and the 18th section from Michoacán as well as some local state organizations (Guerrero). Is another figure like Gordillo needed to take control? What has her absence meant in the months after her apprehension?

4-Crime numbers: until what point can someone live by the numbers? In Mothers’ Day, the federal government announced that in the first five months of President Peña’s administration, there were 5,296 murders, an 18% decrease from the homicides registered in the last five months of Felipe Calderón’s government. On the other hand, PGR revealed on May 13 that the witness protection program used by PAN – and criticized by the current administration – had cost 178.2 million pesos in 12 years. The accusatory numbers frenzy, especially against Calderón’s government, goes on. It’s apparently clear that both the strategy and ways were not optimal in the past administration. Now, Mexican citizens want to know what the current authorities are doing to sort it out. By the way, CIDAC presented on May 14 its 2013 edition of its Crime Rate: 8 Offenses First.

5-The #YoSoy132 phenomenon’s anniversary. Despite its multiple claims about its relevance and validity as well as its declamations to rethink its causes, #YoSoy132 is being watered down in a sea of youth movements that are better organized, have clearer objectives and, let it be said, have higher interests supporting them. In a crude evaluation, #YoSoy132 accomplished little in its objective of putting obstacles along the path of then-Presidential candidate Peña Nieto and didn’t achieve a lot in the “democratization” of media (a bad TV show is not a good example). Besides, other more violent groups such as anarchists as well as UACM and CCH student fronts have once again perverted the spirit of legitimate social protest. What is the main virtue of #YoSoy132? Is it true, as some say, that the current government is “criminalizing” youth?

Antonio De la Cuesta

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