Analysis Agenda – May 20th 2013

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week-ahead

As this awakening administration goes on, the federal government seems to successfully overcome the obstacles related from the wear of acts performed in public office, while opposition remains not knowing what hit it at the political scenario. The PAN case currently stands out ever since its national leader decided to remove his Senate coordinator, which only helped to highlight the party’s internal struggles into the public sphere. In the meantime, as PRI leader, César Camacho, stated, while others fight, his own party “adds and articulates”. The question is, if among these “adds and articulations”, there is more internal discord in opposition parties to come via the controversial Pact for Mexico and whether these parties shall be able to provide a safe environment for the reforms sought from within the Executive Power.

1-Chronicle of a destitution foretold. The sacking of Senator Ernesto Cordero from the coordination of PAN’s Parliamentary Group has several sharp edges (besides its own share of beneficiaries and affected individuals) in the eye of the beholder. The comparisons with 2008 are once again trigged, ever since a similar event occurred with the destitution of the then-leader of PAN Senators Branch, Santiago Creel, and the ulterior designation of the current party leader, Gustavo Madero. In both cases, the interest of having a coordinator more akin to the interests of the party’s leadership led to the destitution of those politicians who were the frustrated presidential “dauphins” of Fox and Calderón: Creel and Cordero, respectively. However, the conditions and possible consequences of the aforementioned decisions face different scenarios. Is it possible to aggravate a climate of political split when there is no longer a figure of internal cohesion as powerful as Calderón?

2-The National Development Plan (PND) 2013-2018: back to the future? On Monday, President Peña finally complied with his constitutional duty of presenting a “democratically planned system of national development”. In the aforementioned act, the Treasury Secretary Luis Videgaray placed an emphasis on the process of citizen consultations that would theoretically strengthen the PND’s democratic legitimacy (whether that’s something possible with just a 0.2% participation of the country’s population). Likewise, in the main document, where the main five axis of the plan are presented, there are allusions to iconic PRI characters from the post-revolutionary period: López Mateos (Mexico at Peace), Lázaro Cárdenas (Inclusive Mexico), Torres Bodet (Mexico with a Quality Education), Ortiz Mena (Prosperous Mexico) and Genaro Estrada (Mexico with a Global Responsibility). What kind of message does the government attempt to deliver with the PND? What does this blend between “citizen legitimacy” and a yearning for past formulas mean?

3-Rescuing Michoacán (once again). It is impossible to forget how former President Calderón placed a special emphasis on solving the major insecurity crisis that was the norm in his home state, Michoacán. What is also not forgotten are the failure and ridicule committed during the process. Nowadays, in the light of the insecurity crisis, heightened by the problem with vigilante groups and the drug trafficking’s different activities, motion or actions from authorities are not clearly distinguished from the ones done in the previous administration. The federal government maintained a reinforced presence of the army in the conflict zone, while voices such as the PAN Senator and former Secretary of Public Safety, Salvador Vega, asked for a disappearance of powers within the state (as if they weren’t virtually gone). Is this the same strategy as the past administration? What would a really efficient solution be in order for the residents of Michoacán to regain peace?

4-Justice procurement as deterrence… of political nature. Last week, two cases of alleged corruption and misuse of public resources emerged: one, involving César Nava, a former law director at PEMEX and former PAN leader and the other involving Andrés Granier, former PRI Governor of Tabasco. Even though both cases would imply a major fraud involving public resources, its development might be different. Regardless of proving his responsibility in the aforementioned accusations, the case involving Nava appears to be the application of extemporaneous justice with a marked political bias; however, the case involving Granier is similar to others in which the evidence of embezzlement – as it is the case of Romero Deschamps, just to name an example – is irrefutable but justice is not rushed. What are the political implications for an eventual legal case against Nava, without forgetting that it’s been promoted in U.S. criminal courts? Could Granier be PRI’s first major politician to go to prison?

5-The mysterious “Core Shield”. Before the official PND presentation act, the local Governors of the State of Mexico, Puebla, Hidalgo, Tlaxcala, Morelos, Guerrero as well as the mayor of Mexico City, got together with the federal government’s security Cabinet. At the end of the meeting, the Interior Secretary hailed “the progress… in a real and effective coordination at the center of the Republic    “, regarding security issues. According to CIDAC’s 2012 Crime Rate Index, three of the seven entities would involve crime incidence ranging from serious to severe. At the same time, during the first three months of 2013, the State of Mexico had first-degree murder figures than can be compared to those of Chihuahua and Guerrero. Even though the fight against insecurity has an important element of building a positive perception, it cannot ultimately depend on it without concrete results. What are the strategies, both operative and politically, behind this “Core Shield”?

Antonio De la Cuesta

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