With the conclusion of the second regular session of the 62nd Legislature, a highly productive season at the Mexican Congress came to an end. The Legislative Power moved towards an implementation of bills and reforms as well as the presentation of the first outlines of laws that could be discussed and approved as of next September. In the meantime, a new stage of great political intensity is unfolding: the start and development of political campaigns throughout 14 states for the renewal of local Congresses, municipal presidencies, and a governorship (Baja California). However, it is likely that the coming political-partisan disputes will have little resonance on a national level and will remain in the “darkness” at the local level. The Federal Government will be the most interested in avoiding that the harmonious “Mexico at peace” image should be endangered because of little electoral “hells”.
1-PGR under fire. For some weeks, the Attorney’s General Office has taken decisions that have called into question several actions of its predecessors (the cases of General Ángeles Dauahare, former Assistant Attorney Ramírez Mandujano, the controversy on protected witnesses and the arraigo, better known as pre-charge detention). Now, suggestions within the institution’s restructuration plan that Attorney General Murillo Karam sent to the Senate are added to the aforementioned issue. Among other things, Murillo discusses inefficiency, nepotism, lack of professionalization and other ills that are not a specific administration’s fault but have always been the leitmotif of justice procurement in Mexico. What would PGR need to become an efficient and useful institution? Will its proposed restructuration be able to transcend the political burden?
2-PRD’s 24th anniversary: how does future looks like? Every May the 5th, one more year is commemorated since several left-wing currents, with or without a political party and brought together upon a breakaway group of PRI, founded PRD. There have been almost no anniversaries in which the words “division”, “rupture” or “crisis” have not been uttered. Even though the historical diversity of Mexican left makes it unstable, there is a current factor that enhances its imbalances: the Pact for Mexico. This will be heightened when the discussion of the tax and energy reforms take place, since they are delicate issues and have almost no sympathy from the left. Will PRD find a clear political project able to facilitate its cohesion or will it end up doing it supported on a single person’s leadership? How will it be affected by the eventual constitution of MORENA as a political party?
3-The migration issue… in Mexico. Within the framework of the U.S. Senate’s vote on immigration reform, it is worth to reflect upon the migrants’ situation in Mexico. It is not a minor issue for known reasons, but its impact could escalate if passerbies face more difficulties to arrive to the USA, with an upcoming border security increase, which would be prescribed in the U.S. reform. The Mexican Institute on Migration just reported that between 2010 and the first half of 2013, 239,252 migrants have been deported; this represented an annual cost of one billion pesos. Beyond its evident human rights implications, is it worth that Mexico is reviewing its migration policy? What would the economic and security costs be if it’s not done soon?
4-The free-trade agreement negotiations between the United States and the European Union: an alert for Mexico. During his brief State visit to Mexico, U.S. President Barack Obama gave a simple speech where he mentioned that, relating to trade issues, USA has its attention on both the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Mexico is already included in the plans of the first project (Trans-Pacific Partnership). Nevertheless, it seems – at least for the moment – to not be part of the second one. According to a study from the Ifo Institute in Munich, if countries like Mexico didn’t participate in an eventual trade agreement between Washington and Brussels, the adverse economic effect would be devastating. Even without an FTA, both entities already have a highly integrated relationship, with commercial transactions valued in one billion dollars and investments that double that numbers. What does Mexico need to take advantage of this and not be left behind?
5-The criticism of the Catholic Church on the government’s rhetoric. In an editorial published in the weekly newspaper “Desde la fe” (“From faith”, in Spanish), the Archbishop Primate of Mexico dismissed the current administration as hesitating when applying the rule of law. In the same context, it took credibility away from the government’s rhetoric that says no one is above the law, as well as the false perception of a country that’s about to reach peace. In the last month, the Catholic media have increased their criticism against the Federal Government on the matter of security. Will the “honeymoon” between Catholic Church and the current administration be the first one to end? At what point is it beneficial that an institution as powerful and influential as the Catholic Church Is warning that the country is on the brink of social chaos? What are their intentions?
Antonio De la Cuesta
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