Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) has gradually retaken the spotlight within the discussion of Mexican national policies with his opposition to the energy and telecommunications reforms. His stance, different from the rest of other leftwing politicians and his very own National Regeneration Movement (MORENA), has drawn criticism even from those who supported his 2006 Presidential campaign. The main recrimination is that it is unnecessary to act in a different manner as the left is doing with regards to the energy reform, since both agree upon stances and ways to achieve it (such as a referendum). AMLO has stated that under no circumstances would he form part of a united front alongside PRD, simply because he does not agree with the party’s leadership. However, this separation goes beyond the aforementioned dissimilarities and is related to the deep differences that exist amongst the left’s several factions.
As of now, López Obrador has several conditions that have enabled him to become a legitimate and active force within opposition. The first of these is his most immediate objective, the registration of MORENA as a political party, something that is assured after complying with the several requirements established by the electoral laws. On the other hand, by not having elected officers or access to public funds, its vulnerability level is substantially reduced when compared to other political forces. The third exceptional circumstance is the advantage that an independent stance would prove to be for PRD as a mean to capitalize the discomfort of the general population in different areas as well as to pass on the responsibility not only to the federal administration but the rest of the opposition altogether. This is such a powerful strategy that they have decided to go ahead with the energy referendum, even with all the costs and risk that this may imply.
Given the aforementioned conditions, the short-term challenge for both MORENA as well as López Obrador is to gather voters in order to enhance its electoral basis as well as to attain potential candidates for the upcoming elections. In order to fulfill this purpose, a pragmatic effort should prevail: one that will enable to find potential candidates that might not had found parties to contend for public office within their current political organizations. In that sense, the main challenge will be to recruit public figures that have the ability to compete and comply with MORENA’s internal procedures as well as the standards that Mr. López Obrador has set to be the rule. An example of the latter is not having been part of the legislators that approved either the tax or the energy reforms. The longer it takes to formalize the internal procedures of MORENA to register a candidate that is able to run for public office and the longer AMLO remains publicizing potential candidates for governors in a unilateral manner, the greater the depletion will be, in addition to the questions regarding how institutional the process is in itself. It is more important that, taking into account regional exceptions, the left will not be able to gain any significant position if it does not stand united.
López Obrador should immediately try to be coherent with his statements and the rules that he approved to control his party and, at the same time, ensure a representation within Congress and municipal governments that will enable MORENA to build a political basis as well as to ensure financial resources. It seems that a fragmented left will not be able to contend for the Mexican Presidency and even more so if AMLO remains attacking and weakening PRD. However, AMLO’s greatest challenge will be the same one as ever before, to show that he is not a character that undermines institutions and that MORENA is a real option for a leftwing in which rules do matter.
CIDAC
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