Pact for Mexico: How about a break?

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political-analisis

The first day of significant differences between political forces that signed the Pact for Mexico was marked by the abandonment of PAN leader, Gustavo Madero and Jesús Zambrano, head of PRD, from every Pact event as well as the accusations of corrupt management regarding the Crusade against Hunger that occurred in several municipalities within the state of Veracruz. Even though Luis Alberto Villarreal, PAN Deputies coordinator, stated that this event does not imply a definitive breakdown with the aforementioned agreement, it does raise the question of whether it’s a temporary pause in or it’s the beginning of the end for the tri-partisan compromise.

The signature of the Pact for Mexico that took place last 2nd of December garnered the headlines: the new administration started an agreement with all political forces to achieve reforms that Mexico needs. Both the vision of opposition parties’ leadership as well as their internal divisions allowed the fact that Madero and Zambrano signed the agreement, with President Peña looking for notoriousness and to be able to exclusively negotiate all the reforms proposed by the Pact. Since then, the legislative agenda was marked by the Pact’s temporality, excluding important groups of legislators from new resolutions. For many PAN and PRD members, their presidents act not as opposition but as an extension of the current government. This internal pressure has been around with the Pact since its tense creation and has left an open space for dispute that might endanger its permanence. A justified cause to distance themselves from the government was found with the revelation of several PRI members’ plan to use the financial resources of the Crusade against Hunger program for electoral purposes and the almost total approval from the President. By abandoning the Pact, the opposition parties’ leaders have been revitalized and, for the first time, they have changed Enrique Peña Nieto’s political agenda. Current government’s withdrawal of the Financial Reform’s presentation shows the opposition parties’ capacity to alter the approval of future proposals. The possible impeachment and a demand for the resignation of Rosario Robles, Secretary of Social Development, raise the political costs regarding the Pact for Mexico with the coming discussion of divisive drafts such as the tax and energy reforms. The room for dialogue that the Federal government has left to overcome disagreements will probably pay off and the events of the Pact shall ensue. However, terms of agreement will be different. In the political arm wrestle regarding the reforms, the opposition parties have won their first victory in the current administration and have dealt the first blow to Enrique Peña Nieto.

The signature of the Pact for Mexico between the Federal Government and the main opposition parties gave the impression of a reform period and allowed the current administration to capitalize on the success of some approved reforms in these months (1), but didn’t show any easy or riskless exit mechanisms. The withdrawal of the Financial Reform’s presentation was a blow to Enrique Peña Nieto’s political capital, who acknowledged that other actors may influence the legislative agenda. The Pact for Mexico (or the agreements between several political actors) will continue to seek the approval of the far-reaching reforms that will be presented on the 2013 second legislative period but the relative force of these actors have changed. The road ahead will still be difficult. First, there are coming state elections, in which parties will compete against each other; then, the most complex reforms, in which historical political positions from the parties involved stand in direct opposition. At some point, one of the three political forces will give up and this will change every scenario. Any of the parties could end up in that position…

CIDAC

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