On July 20th, Marcelo Ebrard re-launched the political current Progressive Movement within PRD, without the involvement of Andrés Manuel López Obrador. In the face of the difficult situation that opposition parties generally live in, the birth of new currents within them could be interpreted as a potential source of conflict (as is the case of PAN). Nevertheless, when it comes to Mexican left, this is its natural way of regrouping itself. For the former Mayor of Mexico City, it’s the right time for its intention, firstly, to win PRD’s leadership and, afterwards, position himself in the national sphere for the 2018 Presidential elections.
The first good news for Ebrard was the concurrence of his movement’s foundation act. Even López Obrador and the current Mayor of Mexico City – neither of them are PRD members nowadays – were notable absences, most of the relevant currents within PRD and its allies were represented. Besides, Jesús Zambrano, the party’s national leader, and Cuauhtémoc Velasco, leader of Mexico City’s Civic Movement, one of the highlights was the presence of National Democratic Left, represented by Dolores Padierna (or, in other words, the strongest force in PRD’s bastion within the city), as well as loyal Ebrard supporters, Senators Mario Delgado and Manuel Camacho Solís, his political godfather. What does this Progressive Movement re-launch mean?
At first sight, PRD members appear to be constructing the figure of their new chieftain, third in line for succession after Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas and López Obrador. Regarding the latter, his separation from PRD and his intention to convert his very own Movement of National Regeneration (MORENA) into a political party will ease the path for Ebrard when the time comes for PRD to announce his “best man” for the coming years. Simply put, Ebrard’s political option will not compete with voters of MORENA, that is to say, those who are closer to the middle-lower class and who perceive the lowest income – without mentioning their more belligerent nature. Likewise, a rupture between Ebrard and López Obrador seems out of the question: if it didn’t occur in the background of the 2012 leftwing Presidential nomination it will less likely happen now that López Obrador has the control of his very own political “little parcel” (using public funds). Secondly, the existence of the Progressive Movement expands the ideological sphere of Mexican Left and diversifies the options available to its voters. Ebrard appeals to a public that has yet to be capture by any political party: middle-class homes (with middle and higher incomes), highly educated, with productive working age, reformers and with several interests in creating networks of social security.
In addition, we have a leftwing with several fractions in its place: the radical content within MORENA; PT and the Civic Movement as a sort of communicating vessels (the former, more inclined towards radical left and the latter, sometimes flirting with moderate right), and a PRD that embraces a pluralistic left, but which tends to Ebrard’s more progressive view. In the immediate future, the first major opportunity of unifying the left will come with the discussion of the energy reform. Not even the Pact for Mexico will serve as an excuse for inner breakup, given that PRD, from Zambrano – who signed it – to Ebrard – who has voiced his opposition to it – knows that embracing the antique rhetoric of defending “oil sovereignty” is profitable with their clientele and voters. Ultimately, reforms have the numbers needed to “survive” the rejection of the left.
That being said, the experience of Roberto Madrazo’s PRI leadership – and what that meant in terms of controlling his party’s resources and tools – proves that there is no secure way in the path of a party’s candidacy, let alone an electoral victory. The ability of the party’s several leaderships to add strengths and build a candidacy from the roots and sotto voce will be much more important. Enrique Peña Nieto proved that, currently, Mexican politics are built brick by brick: from the roots and adding up until every other competition is blurred.
CIDAC
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