This week was the beginning of the ordinary sessions in Mexican Congress. The main characteristic of this legislative season will be the saturation of the agenda, especially due to the legislation and issuing of several reforms approved throughout the 62nd Legislature. Congress has certainly enhanced its legislative effectiveness in the past 17 months. It could be argued that the Pact for Mexico was a key stakeholder for this legislative productivity. However, now that the latter has ended, can we expect a desaturation of Congress activities? What political maneuver is envisioned for the coming months?
By not having Constitutional reforms in the legislative horizon, the federal government, PRI and its allies, the Green Party and the New Alliance Party, will only require simple majorities in Congress (half plus one of the legislators present in the sessions) with the purpose of approving their initiatives. The scenario would be settled for PRI with only their allied parties. In the Senate, if the 128 Senators are present during the voting, it will be enough by convincing 4 opposition Senators in order to achieve a simple majority. In that sense, PAN will aim to condition its vote in favor of the secondary legislation of the energy reform to an adequate participation – in its particular point of view – in the legislation of the political reform as well as the establishment of the National Electoral Institute (INE). Although the formation of INE’s General Council will depend on Deputies, PAN members will pretend to hold a sort of “mirror discussion” among the Senate debates on the energy issue as well as the Deputies on the political-electoral matter. On the other hand, the “prize” for PRD could be PRI’s willingness to eliminate the obstacles for the political reform of Mexico City.
On the other hand, what could happen inside PRI? Will things be so “well” regarding the small number of moves that opposition may make that there will be a higher risk for a resurface of clashes amongst interest within the official party? For instance, there have been a lot of statements made by PRI members on issues like energy in which they argue that a lot was provided for right-wing interests when modifying the Constitution, which would aim to counterweight the legislation towards a left-wing approach in the sector’s secondary legislation. Of course, these statements have little to do with ideology and very much with the interests that are represented. However, although there will be more activity inside PRI, the party cohesion has been superior to 95% in past ordinary periods. As a matter of fact, the discipline shown by PRI in Congress during Peña’s government resembles the party’s historical highs. Likewise, the only party with a clear long-term agenda is PRI: its goal is to sustain itself in power, whatever the cost, and using all mediums available. The question is whether this will be continued, given that some of the involved issues represent fundamental challenges for some of the party’s factions.
As of now, the first days of sessions in both Chambers have more or less illustrated how the Legislative Power might behave in the three months of the ordinary period. The legislation issued by the commissions (ideally the first filter to work on some of its details) after the takeover of PRI majorities in them (something that is not very different from what has occurred in previous periods). But afterwards, when reaching Congress, especially the Chamber of Deputies, and after an agreement amongst the PRI, PAN and even PRD factions, the debates are overlooked and voting is quickly set. This is not a surprise. What is not surprising either is the way in which, in addition to having low legislative resistance the opposition is devoured in its very own little infernos derived from scandals that could very well feature in a soap opera. In sum, the behavior of Congress foresees a cheap pragmatism that, in a few words, blocks it from becoming a democratic stage where the laws that are aimed at providing better conditions for wellbeing as well as the development of the nation are supposedly being established.
CIDAC
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