The end of Enrique Peña’s first year in office is just around the corner. Even when pending issues remain in the legislative agenda proposed and negotiated from the Executive Power via the Pact for Mexico – the energy reform clearly stands out -, some pressure might be released before the end of 2013. If the aforementioned is followed through, the current administration has a high probability of complying with goals that were proposed at the beginning of his government – at least legislative issues. If that were to happen, it is worth asking: what is next?
The Pact for Mexico, signed a day after Peña’s inauguration, has allowed the President to lead the legislative agenda and, ultimately, gain control over the State apparatus. On aggregate, Peña Nieto has more power nowadays than the one possessed by Felipe Calderón at the end of his term. In addition, the Pact enabled the elimination of the idea of a “non-reforming” Mexico by contrasting two previous administrations characterized by legislative paralysis. The latter is a major challenge for the current government, which has exhausted the possibility of providing an excuse for a bad performance in the absence of legislative reforms. Perhaps, the idea of the awaited structural reforms has come to an end (although, if it were to fail, that rhetoric would surely be used by the opposition). As a matter of fact, a great risk for the current administration lies in appearing as too capable of mobilizing the Legislative Power, but incompetent to transform the country’s reality.
Although (for now) the “reform model” might have reached its limit, what will the government’s role be during the rest of its term? The Executive Power has two chances: 1) holding on to the reform inertia; or 2) transit towards a model of little politics and a lot of management. It might end up in the worst of the two worlds: a lot of politic and a poor overall performance. With the announcement last week of a “major agricultural reform” in 2014, the temptation of continuing the reform inertia is not an unsubstantiated idea. The aforementioned possibility should not be all that strange, especially when considering the President’s preference for political commitments and big announcements. However, continuing with the aforementioned dynamic is questionable. It is true that there have been several reforms (although if they turn out to be optimal remains to be seen). Nevertheless, they don’t seem to follow through the idea of a transversal type of development. Changing laws without an articulate model for a country might end up discrediting the process of reforms itself. If a true serious job is to be made, the time has to come to operate, not so much in electoral or political terms (which at times seems to be the only motivation for some of these reforms), but also in the management of public policies. The education reform serves as an example for reforms that may look good on paper but are afterwards diluted or faded away when faced with reality.
In the end, evaluation of the government will happen, not with the basis in the number of approved changes, but in the results themselves. Likewise, focusing on administration would allow it to attend abandoned issues, such as the institutional structure of management in Mexico. It is worth mentioning that the institutional design in the country has advanced a lot in relation with autonomous entities such as IFE or IFAI, but its development in centralized public administration has been precarious. The federal government apparatus is still operating under a law that was issued when López Portillo was President, more than thirty years ago.
2014 presents itself as the ideal year to focus on administration, especially when a minimal amount of political activities is expected. However, will the Executive Power be able to truly transform the country or will it fall under the temptation of the media reflectors as well as the easy – though with a prompt expiration date – applause that the eternal promise of future change holds? 2014 will be a year that will ease that tendency, but it will also be the year where true negotiations (those related to the implementations) of reforms in energy, education and telecommunications will come. Rather than being an easy year, it will bring a lot of tension and will serve as the ultimate test for watching how competitive the administration of President Peña is.
CIDAC
Comments