On July 20th, during the National Convention of the Citizen Movement (MC), Marcelo Ebrard criticized his former party, PRD, thereby increasing discussion and speculation regarding future scenarios, alliances and movements within the leftwing faction. These statements are set within an essential phase of the reconfiguration of the Mexican leftwing, which started with the breakup of PRD from the Pact for Mexico. In the near future, the several elections to be held in 2015 – the federal mid-term, some new Governorships and some other local processes – will be the first chance to see how strong the leadership of the left: the “Chuchos” group who control PRD, López Obrador and his party MORENA and Ebrard with a potential involvement with the Citizen Movement. In this scenario, the Mexico City elections will be a good indicator, given its nationwide importance, for the future of Mexican leftwing. Its results will determine if this separation is definite or whether a negotiation and cooperation will ensue with the 2018 elections in mind.
Generally speaking, the Mexican leftwing is formed by a PRD that has chosen to be perceived as a party with respect for institutions due to its involvement with the Pact for Mexico, a complicated bet because the only possible winner can be the current PRI government. However, this has meant that, on one hand, the party has had a greater access to public resource and, on the other hand, for the first time in its history it has a dominant political group (although some may call them a dominant tribe), the “Chuchos”, a fact that could provide internal stability for future years. On the other side of the spectrum, the National Regeneration Movement (MORENA) has the political capital that Andrés Manuel López Obrador brings as party leader, not to mention the legitimacy that it has by strongly opposing the collaboration on issues discussed within the aforementioned Pact for Mexico. The third political force in this scenario, Citizen Movement, is on the verge of acquiring a “new signing”: Marcelo Ebrard. Although the former Mexico City Mayor has found a platform for continuing his political career that PRD has taken away from him, MC has also voiced, just as MORENA, its opposition against the issues established in the pact, given the constant criticism to the agreement by Ebrard. Lastly, the Workers Party (PT), whose main advantage is that, unlike MORENA, it can enter into coalition with other parties in 2015, so the question is to know whether any other party would be interesting in aligning themselves with PT and under what terms would the votes be distributed in a potential team effort (it is worth remembering that rules on the matter were strengthened in Congress a few weeks ago).
PRD’s main target for mid-term elections is damage control related to the much-criticized administration of Mayor Miguel Ángel Mancera, trusting the party’s ability to mobilize voters and, if possible, a low turnout of Mexico City voters (lack of participation usually benefits the party with the largest political infrastructure). In addition, it can deem convenient to form an alliance with PT, a party that does not have a charismatic candidate and would not be able to maintain its registry if it decided to run on its own. On the other hand, MORENA has announced its political operators (Ricardo Monreal, Bertha Luján, Claudia Sheinbaum, Jesús González Schmal, Clara Brugada, amongst others) and has hinted that its priority will be Mexico City. In the case of MC, perhaps the most important thing is to strengthen itself using the figure of Marcelo Ebrard in order to increase its political options: firstly, to reach the 3% of total voters which would allow it to maintain its registry and, afterwards, to impact on the potential appointment of a single leftwing candidate for the 2018 Presidential elections. 2015 will undoubtedly be a test for assessing how strong the Mexican left and its candidates really are.
Mexico City elections will be interesting not only because of the strategy of leftwing parties to select their candidates or design their political discourse but also due to the voters’ behavior. It remains to be seen whether the Mexico City inhabitants showcase a divided voting between the different leftwing options, PRI and PAN, or whether the scenario is more likely to follow the national context, thereby increasing the counterweight to the federal PRI government. Of course, the leadership skills of each leftwing faction remains to be seen, especially those of former Mayors López Obrador and Ebrard. This way, the result of the 2015 experiment will not only affect the political capital that establishes the access to public resources for each party, but it will also impact on the local Congress and its agenda, as well as the potential support for Mexico City’s political reform, which has been forgotten due to the aforementioned Pact for Mexico.
Having said all that and regardless of the many questions raised by the left, this issue has a clear winner. PRI has been working quietly and although it doesn’t believe it may increase its public perception in Mexico City, it will certainly win if the opposition appears to be divided. Finally, regarding the federal level, although the leftwing is usually united by the time of Presidential elections, it remains to be seen whether this division will prevail until 2018. Is this a matter of ego, institutions or mere political convenience? As Hamlet would say, “that is the question”. What is blatantly obvious is that a divided left will never reach the Presidency.
CIDAC
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