Currently, 66% of Mexican states have high levels of murders and extortion, while in 2007 that figure only reached 31%. In addition, 31% of states present kidnapping rates that can be compared to Colombia’s worst times during the 90s, while that number was 6% in 2007.
Let us be clear. The main goal of the Federal Government regarding security should not focus in disappearing the issue from public agenda or arguing about the decrease in the number of crime-related murders (which comes from a non-public database with a highly criticized methodology) but into building a criminal policy which will effectively bring back peace to the population. However, there is a lack of a defined strategy on national security and Mexico is facing an increasingly endemic violence: from 2007 to 2012, the number of states with more than 10 murders per 100 thousand inhabitants grew from 10 to 21; entities with more than 10 kidnappings per 100 thousand inhabitants grew from 2 to 10; and finally, the number of states which have more than 10 extortion cases per 100 thousand inhabitants grew from 10 to 21. With that in mind, will 2013 prove to be a violent tipping point for those entities which are considered relatively safe?
Beyond the decrease in murder rates
During the past few days, the Ministry of Interior announced a decrease in the number of murders linked to organized crime. The compelling message highlighted a decline of 1,136 murders compared to the first half of 2012. However, beyond this supposed downturn, the truth is that violence in Mexico ceased to be a cause phenomenon that was only limited to a few entitites, and is now a current phenomenon in most of the country’s states.
According to the 8 Delitos Primero, Índice Delictivo CIDAC (8 Crimes First, CIDAC’s Crime Rate Index) report, there are only eight crimes in Mexico that impact the insecurity perception the most: kidnapping, murder, extortion, malicious injury, violent or non-violent pedestrian robbery and violent or non-violent car theft. Of the aforementioned, the first three crimes are responsible of 88% of the shift on insecurity perception in the country.
In that regard, from 2007 to 2012, not only did the average incidence of the top three crimes was substantially increased (64% in murder, 243% in kidnapping and 93% in extortion) but also high rates began to emerge in relatively stable entities. Nowadays, 66% of states have high rates of murder and extortion (an incidence higher than 10 crimes per 100 thousand inhabitants) when in 2007 it was only 31%, on the other hand, 31% of Mexican states have kidnapping rates that can be compared to the worst moments of 90’s Colombia, while in 2007 that figure barely reached 6%. The spread of violence was a phenomenon that began during the end of the past administration; a decrease in the number of murders linked to organized-crime is not evidence of a possible contention of criminal expansion to other municipalities and entities.
Our concern: new states experiencing violence
Here’s a simple exercise. Firstly, we analyzed which crimes form part of the catalogue of ordinary crimes according to the National System of Public Security (SNSP). According to the crime, we established if an entity was about to reach its “tipping point”, that is, it possessed low levels of incidence – a lower occurrence than the national average in 2008 – but high growth rates – with annual rates higher than 10% every year or rates higher than 15% in 66% of the period from 2007 to 2012. Finally, with the aforementioned criteria, we ranked the states according to the total amount of crimes that reached its “tipping point”. The states that have the higher number of crimes in its “tipping point” are ranked in the top places of the following table.
Although some of these entities already have complex violence issues, with externalities that directly or indirectly affect its population, such as Nuevo León and Durango, there are several surprises, particularly in the states of Querétaro, Zacatecas and Colima.
Querétaro: the surprise of the Bajío region?
The state of Querétaro is rarely referred by the media as a crime-infested area. However, during the past two years it has observed a substantial increase in some felonies, three of them are financially related (fraud, dispossession and breach of trust, which are crimes not directly linked with organized crime), as well as violent robbery to a passerby and nonviolent auto theft. The rest of crimes with high annual growth rates and low levels compared with the national average in the state are felonies whose specific incidence is hard to determine due to the lack of a rate that measures the incidence of legal complaints regarding rape and kidnapping. While the former has the equivalent rate of unrecorded crimes, in which 80% of the cases are caused by someone closely related to the victim, the latter is rarely detected in surveys, which hinders the ability to determine the number of victims and to contrast it with the total amount of legal complaints.
Additionally, according to the 2011 National Survey on Victimization and Insecurity Perception (ENVIPE), 50% of Querétaro’s population believes that violence is the main problem of the state. Although CIDAC’s Crime Rate Index puts Querétaro in third place in the states with lower violence effects, this is the only entity with several crimes in a “tipping point” situation within the first five places of the aforementioned Index.
A clear example in that regard is the rise of first-degree murder during the past two years: while in 2010 there were 3.2 murders per 100 thousand inhabitants, in 2012 this number went as high as 5.8. This implies a relatively low number compared to the murder average of 19.4 per 100 thousand inhabitants, but with an 80% growth rate in a relatively short period of time.
Zacatecas: a violent and misinformed state
Zacatecas reflects both a rise in general lawsuits along with an increase in the rate of non-legal complaints from 2005 to 2011. This implies an escalation in the crime phenomenon and a growing distrust in justice procurement institutions. First-degree murders from 2007 to 2001 increased by 81%, even when the incidence is 8 murders below the national average; reports of kidnapping increased by 855% in the same period by shifting from 0.3 per 100 thousand inhabitants to more than 2.8; finally, extortion reports grew from 1.6 to 3.3 (a 106% increase).
Colima: under the radar
Despite the fact that there have been few news regarding crime within the state of Colima, the rise in criminal phenomenon has been noteworthy: a 311% increase in non-violent auto theft, a 1450% rise in non-violent robbery and a 30% increase in kidnapping (going from 3.7 kidnapping per 100 thousand inhabitants in 2010 to 4.8 in 2012) and the widespread murder rampage of 168% (it went from 14 murders per 100 thousand inhabitants in 2010 to more than 37 two years later). Even though the incidence level of these crimes within Colima is well below the national average (except for murder, which is 18 above), its growing rates are alarming, which takes the 16th position in CIDAC’s Crime Rate Index and could pass from a medium impact to a serious one by the end of this year. It is worth mentioning the worrisome statement by Colima Governor, Mario Anguiano Moreno, who said in March 2012 that police forces have been exceeded by organized crime.
2013
The Federal Government inherited a serious social problem. Even though past mistakes are not responsibility of the current administration, its bad management of federal resources regarding security and its public security strategy will certainly be evaluated. President Enrique Peña Nieto asked for a one year extension to assess the impact of insecurity in Mexico. If 2013 becomes a success or a failure will depend if the Federal Government is capable to tackle, along with local administrations, the growing violence in states that are as of yet in a stable and calm condition, and have manageable levels of crime incidence. If this endemic problem is not solved, violence levels as seen in Chihuahua, Baja California, Michoacán or Guerrero will rise and security issues will be on the center of public attention once again, leaving behind the optimistic headlines that promised order and growth.
Rafael Ch
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