On May 5th, the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) celebrated its twenty-fifth anniversary with an event held in Mexico City’s Theatre, where a speech made by Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas stood out. It criticized the party’s leadership by pointing out those party members that aim for a modern left-wing and are, in Cárdenas words, part of a “submissive and neoliberal regime” that is transforming the left into being docile. It is clear that PRD is trying to redefine itself after the disaster against its identity but, what are its intentions? In the near future, its social agenda seems to be insufficient to sustain its twenty years hegemony on its main stronghold, Mexico City, especially when considering they no longer possess a strong leadership in the region. To achieve an expansion of its potential voters, PRD will require of going beyond issues such as the right to abortion, legalization of marijuana, marriage equality and even the so-called “oil advocacy”.
PRD’s role does not seem clear even for itself. On one hand, it needs to keep unity and drive voters away from López Obrador, the main instigator of those “dividing winds” that Cárdenas talked about during his speech; or, on the other hand, presenting itself as an option that is far from any radicalisms (despite the recommendation made by Cárdenas of using the opposite strategy). PRD only governs 5 out of 32 states in Mexico – counting Oaxaca but excluding Sinaloa and Puebla, although ruling the country’s capital is the “crown jewel” that somehow compensates such a deficit. Nevertheless, upon the imminent failure of Miguel Ángel Mancera as Mayor (even though he’s not a member of PRD, his political future is tied to this party), what will happen when the party faces the 2018 election? It is worth remembering that all of their Presidential candidates since 2000 have held that post and the López Obrador-MORENA factor could seize the opportunity on appointing the candidate of a potential unified left.
Without going that far away in time and thinking about the 2015 mid-term and Governor elections, PRD will be forced not so much into keeping the size of its current caucus within the Chamber of Deputies and defend its positions in states throughout the country, but to venture into attaining overlooked voters that are unhappy with the federal government’s as well as their own state’s policies. PRD hasn’t seized a vulnerable and forgotten electorate that, in other Latin American countries, was addressed by the left. Why not focus the attention on the lower middle class such as the manufacturing sector in the northern part of the country? It was a wasted opportunity since most of these states are ruled by PRI and have been affected by the fiscal reform approved by the federal government for things such as the 16% VAT standardization (although a majority of PRD Congressmen voted in favor of that policy, northern legislators did not).
Another potential strategy mistake made by PRD leadership is that they have established the referendum on energy reform as one of its main courses of action. However, this is practically perceived as a lost battle since three of the more relevant energy laws that are under discussion are not part of such a referendum – 11th article of the secondary legislation – since it deals with tax issues and it influences in federal income and expenditure. By focusing on such details, PRD is leaving a progressive agenda behind and has ceased to discuss matters such as the political-electoral reform. When the “battle for defending Mexican oil” is finished, will they care about creating a true government plan? The party needs to look for a new market of voters and become a modern left with new proposals. It needs to provide an effective democracy, which is a comparative advantage to PRI and PAN, who have not attained an efficient project that is capable of boosting a decrease of social inequality as well as enhancing democratic values.
Lastly, PRD is involved in a struggle for the party’s control between groups close to current leader Jesús Zambrano – with former Senator Carlos Navarrete – those akin to Cárdenas, to Lopez Obrador (who are in the run), to Marcelo Ebrard (isolated), to René Bejarano and radical members, among others. Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas pointed out that a unified candidate (preferably himself) could be the solution for these “dividing winds” that he has claimed to perceive. However, whilst PRD does not find a coherent path, its attempt to gain more voters and political territory will remain bleak and will continue to depend in “anti-PRI” alliances rather than its own proposals. The party’s members also suffer from the lack of identity within all opposition, a result of the unique relationship between Jesús Zambrano and PAN leader Gustavo Madero have established with Enrique Peña Nieto’s administration. Although it could be seen that this alliance resulted in a faster flow of legislative issues, it is not convenient to reduce opposition towards its minimum expression. In that sense, the presence of the left is essential in obtaining efficient counterweights against a federal government with an insatiable centralizing frame of mind. Opportunities are there, it only remains to be seen whether there is a will to generate changes that PRD needs to seize them.
CIDAC
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