Coalitions

According to Ambrose Bierce, a famous satirical writer of the nineteenth century, alliances are “the union of two thieves who have their hands so deeply inserted in each other’s pockets that they cannot separately plunder a third.” Now that we are in electoral-alliances season, Bierce is worth remembering not only for his wry appreciation of life and wit, but also because of the comedy that characterizes this discussion in our country.
Alliances and coalitions are the bread and butter of parliamentary politics. But in Mexico they have taken amazing dimensions. Here go some thoughts, considerations and opinions:
1.     PAN (Partido Accion Nacional) members are divided on the idea of an alliance with the PRD (Partido Revolucion Democratica) and other parties, particularly the PT (Partido del Trabajo), because they think they belong to a different social class. For its part, the PRD, already fractured into two large blocks, can’t decide what is better: an alliance with its archrival or to continue being in the opposition.
2.     The members of PRI (Partido Revolucionario Institucional) have no doubts: for them the potential alliance between their opponents is “perverse” and “unnatural”, presumably because PAN and PRD do not recognize each other as a legitimate political player (“fascists” say some members of the PRD about PAN; “a danger to the country” say members of PAN about PRD). However, behind the PRI’s stance one can see the concern that a potential alliance, even one that is not altogether saintly, could undermine some of its state strongholds such as Oaxaca, Puebla and Veracruz.
3.     By definition, the aim of an electoral alliance is to defeat a more powerful opponent. In countries with multiparty systems, especially those characterized by run-offs (such as France where there is a proliferation of parties and candidates before the first round that go on to build alliances and coalitions in order to win in the second round), or parliamentary systems with low thresholds for access to parliament, alliances and coalitions are the daily bread of politics. For over sixty years Holland has not had a government without a coalition because no party has reached an absolute majority: alliances are the element that makes it possible to constitute a government.
4.     The problem with such partnerships in Mexico is that our parties do not perceive each other as equals, as partners in a process of nation building. They see each other more like enemies than as adversaries capable of joining efforts, except when it comes to defeating the PRI. In one word, there is an obvious contradiction between want is fundamental and what is comforting.
5.     It is clear that the agendas of the PAN and PRD are different, because if they were not they would be the same party. The problem is not that their agendas differ but that they don’t inhabit the same planet. If their differences were only about social or economic policy, an alliance could help mend differences and develop common ground, such as is the case in all modern democracies. Their differences on abortion or homosexuality are important in terms of partisan philosophy, but they would not necessarily exclude an electoral alliance in which they all agreed not to address those issues. In any event the issues of social policy that divide them are mostly not relevant outside Mexico City, so the notion of building an electoral coalition for other states cannot be dismissed on such grounds.
6.     Electoral alliances have two stages: one is aimed at elections and another at governing. When two or more parties form a coalition they do so because that is the best way to advance their projects and strengthen their electoral and political position. In our context, the first aim, winning an election, has proven successful in several instances; but when it comes to governing, what has happened is that the party of the candidate who won ends up governing and excludes the rest. The experience in this area is extensive and almost overwhelming: the alliances and coalitions in Mexico are always temporary and limited to the specific goal of winning an election. Is it worth it?
7.     The parties that participated in the winning coalition but did not provide the successful candidate become alienated from the daily exercise of power. Those within the parties who oppose this type of opportunistic alliances argue that someone else always enjoys the benefits. The truth is that if there are several simultaneous elections in which the same parties coalesce and the distribution of nominations is equitable, none should feel are left on the fringes. Much more serious, relevant and interesting are the concerns of those who envision the possibility of failure, even if a coalition seemed formidable and likely to win at the outset of an electoral process. Where are the parties left after a failed election?  If instead of obtaining an overwhelming victory as they had hoped, they end defeated, could this lead to a self fulfilling prophesy that delivers the whole country to the PRI in the presidential elections of 2012?
8.     It is obvious that the only goal shared by the PAN and the PRD in the proposed alliance is to defeat the PRI. There is nothing inherently evil in a coalition that pursues an aim of this nature. It could be argued that at least one of the reasons why democracy has not flourished in Mexico is precisely because of the strength of the pre modern strongholds enjoyed by the PRI in several states, starting with the southeast. Under this line of reasoning, the PRI’s defeat would have the effect of fragmenting power at the state level, just as it has happened at the federal level. In this context the potential benefit of disabling those fiefdoms would seems quite clear. However, it is also understandable that even in the most benign scenario of victory, the costs would not be unimportant. As pyrrhic a victory as the current legislature has had in passing the president’s bills (or almost any bills), all of those passed were due to the existing understandings, whether explicit or implied, between the PRI and PAN, both of which accept the legitimacy of the other. Could the proposed PAN-PRD coalitions endanger the only factor that has allowed the country to be governed over the past few years? This is not an argument meant to reject the idea of these alliances, merely a description of the bigger picture.
9.     What really matters is whether there is a deeper content to the proposed alliances designed to defeat PRI. Defeating PRI might be a desirable goal, but it is not the relevant one from the perspective of the citizenship. Many members of the PAN viscerally reject an alliance with PRD in Oaxaca on the grounds that it would mean bringing into the coalition a series of radical organizations that paralyzed that state three years ago and do not recognize President Calderon. Put in this vein, it would clearly make no sense to proceed. However, what if the real goal were to be deeper? What if an alliance like the proposed one advanced towards bringing all political actors, including these organizations, into the institutional side of politics? The benefits would then be immense.
10.     In stark contrast with the nature of coalitions in truly democratic nations, an alliance such as those proposed must be appreciated for what they are: an attempt to change the rules of competition and control within the political system. If they are successful in overthrowing some of the PRI feudal strongholds, they would bring oxygen to the system and also to the modern side of PRI that has been unable to reform the party even if its leaders are unwilling to admit it. However, the only relevant benefit for the citizens would be to start building a common agenda to develop the country. That would really seem “unnatural.”