On Saturday, June 15, the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) installed its Permanent Political Commission in Tijuana, Baja California, as a way to support its candidates to city government, local Congress and, specially, its nominee for the Governor post, Fernando Castro Trenti, on the coming July 7th elections. PRI aims to reclaim the landmark state after 24 uninterrupted years of PAN administrations, at a time in which the aforementioned party appears to be weakened. Nevertheless, the picture is not clear by any means. Even though in the very few surveys that have been published (for instance, the ones provided by Covarrubias house pollster or the local newspaper Frontera) the PRI candidate had an advantage between 5 and 7 percentage points, leading members of PAN and PRD claimed on the past Tuesday that their allied candidate, ‘Kiko’ Vega, was leading the race by almost 8 points on the surveys published by Mitofksy and Mendoza y Asociados house pollsters. What is really going on in Baja California? What are the possible outcomes?
Even though most of the major PRI politicians were part of the act held in Tijuana (such as Camacho Quiroz, Beltrones, Gamboa), Castro Trenti seems to have been “abandoned” by Mexico’s ultimate PRI member: Enrique Peña Nieto. The silence of those who are closest to the President and the lack of support to Castro Trenti – and other PRI candidates throughout the country – seek to avoid accusations of not complying with the Pact for Mexico’s addendum (which conditioned the PAN and PRD permanence in the agreement if the federal government didn’t intervene within local elections), with the goal of prolonging its existence. However, if PAN ends up winning the local election, will it really be due to the circumspection of the federal government by not strongly supporting Baja California PRI candidates rather than a deliberate strategy of “handing over” the state to PAN or will the blue party’s competitive tactics prove to be powerful enough?
The apparent local competitiveness of PAN in Baja California, supported by the political wear suffered by PRI in its administrations on the state’s five municipal presidencies won three years ago, contrasts with PAN’s precarious situation at national level. In the intense early stages of the real battle for the party’s control, whose national leadership will be at stake in December could find a haven of peace with a potential PAN victory in Baja California’s governorship, as well as some other key municipalities throughout the 14 states that will hold elections. On the other hand, it is worth to mention that, even if the party manages to win Baja California, Gustavo Madero’s leadership isn’t assured by any means on the internal election to be held next December. Likewise, the potentials risks for the downfall of the current PAN leader will be exponentially increased if evidence of a political negotiation between PRI and PAN in order to keep the Pact for Mexico afloat came to light. These are issues that PAN members, specially its grassroots base, punish severely.
Paradoxically, by casting doubts over a possible “cession” for the governorship of the aforementioned state between the federal government and the PAN leadership may prove to be an “accomplishment” for PRI. Regardless of the result in Baja California, the rupture within PAN will continue to progress. Will this challenge the coming reforms? Perhaps not. Even if the left could be contentious regarding energy and tax discussions, the government’s projects still hold affinity with enough members of PAN in order to succeed… all while the aforementioned party crumbles.
It is important to acknowledge that the electoral logic in non-Presidential elections tends to be strictly local, a fact that remits to a different scenario in each state. The July 7th elections acquires a national dimension due to the Pact, which has been a mechanism that’s contributed to polarize members of the two opposition parties, particularly, PAN. What is true is that beyond the election results, there are still a lot of moves to be made in the Mexican political process, affected by the information available each time and by the actions that the government may undertake and that could impact the internal procedures of PAN and PRD. This is not over until it’s over.
CIDAC
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