The number of Mexicans who have access to durable consumer goods, forms of entertainment – such as cable television – and services with technological content – for example, mobile phone services – has risen. That’s according to a report published by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI), which estimates that middle class in Mexico increased by 4% during the first decade of the 21st century, thereby reaching 44 million of Mexicans, that is to say, a 39.2% of the total population. Nevertheless, what is really the middle class and how can it be measured? Could this minimal increase be attributed with public policy decision-making to exogenous factors or a blend of both? Perhaps not least importantly, what does it tell us that 56% of the population in this survey is “not poor”?
There is not a range in levels of income or wealth, neither a catalogue of access to services nor a pattern of consuming goods that is universally accepted to exactly determine whether or not someone belongs to the middle class. If so, who belongs to the Mexican middle class and under which criteria are they categorized? According to INEGI, the most likely scenario in a middle class homes is that at least one member of the family receives an income and works for a private company. However, INEGI also acknowledges that informal jobs occupy 29.3 million workers, a number that represents 60% of the economically active population. Even if the high proportion of Mexican middle class that works in the informal sector could be “benefitting” from not paying taxes, at the same time it does not have social security (although neither do a lot of “formal” workers), can’t access to credit (most middle-class workers, informal or not, still obtain credit from non-banking sources, such as family loans or collective savings, specially if they can’t prove they possess fixed income), their encouragement to save is slim to none and, most worrisome, lack from work stability. The middle class in Mexico is a sector that is still highly vulnerable to financial instability, inflation or sudden changes on interest rates. Sickness, lack of resource suppliers, unemployment and other issues can easily undermine Mexican middle class. According to the National Council for Evaluation of Social Development Policies (CONEVAL), about 32.5 million people in the country would find themselves within that range.
Fighting poverty has been an everlasting part of political rhetoric in Mexico. Several administrations have launched programs such as the National Solidarity Program (within the Salinas government), the Education, Health and Food Program (that happened during Zedillo’s term), Opportunities (Fox) and the No Hunger Program, launched by current President, Peña. However, in addition to the handouts that have not lifted anyone out of poverty – even if the corruption of those who promote it has in fact done so and in some cases, led to obscene amounts of wealth – no administration has elaborated a public policy that has gone beyond, allowing those who escape poverty to insert themselves within the middle class. Likewise, even if the informal sector constitutes an exhaust valve for individuals facing lack of opportunities in the formal economic sectors, its current size will prove futile any strategy or incentive policy for a real consolidation of middle class. If Mexico focuses its efforts on “lifting people out of poverty”, instead of strengthening those who have already left it, the collective progress of Mexican society will remain an illusion.
The biggest merit of the past two decades – result of the financial stability and the decrease on the cost of essential goods due to the liberalization of imports – is that million of families now live in a stability environment that allows them to increase their expenditure. That means a great deal of the population has ceased being poor and living in perpetual precariousness, but is still not consolidated within the stable middle class, free of structural vulnerability.
CIDAC
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