Despite the strategy of the federal government and President Peña of abandoning the rhetoric of a fight against violence and organized crime, the insecurity perception increased by 5.7% from 2012 to 2013, which represents 7.6 million of individuals that feel more insecure within their states, according to the National Survey of Victimization and Perception on Public Insecurity (ENVIPE), developed by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI). As a matter of fact, those states that were previously considered relatively stable were the ones who presented the greater increases in insecurity perception from 2011 to 2012: Yucatán, the state that celebrated its low crime rates, showed a dramatic rise of 67.8%; Querétaro, a state in a potential tipping point with high growth levels but low crime rates experienced a 39.9% rise; Chiapas, who had important increases of violent robbery rose up to 34.6%. Summarizing, Mexico is perceived as more insecure country than a year before and insecurity remains as the issue that concerns society the most. Will these results force the federal and local governments to fundamentally change the security strategy, if there is even one?
Even though it may sound like a paradox, in political terms, not all results of the 2013 ENVIPE were negative for the current administration, particularly those regarding the substantial increase of victimization. This rose from 24,317 victims per 100 thousand inhabitants in 2011 to 27,337 in 2012, representing a 12.4% increase. According to the National Development Plan, the victimization rate will be the indicator used to assess the efficiency of the government in the so-called axis “Mexico at Peace”. Therefore, despite that it’s the highest rate in the last four years, it establishes a high number that will be much easier to fight against and, consequently, easier to be compared against the efforts made by the previous administration of Felipe Calderón. In addition to this indicator, there is also a rise in the rate of most of high-impact crimes, an increase in the insecurity perception on work and at home, the punctual indication of drug use on 40.1% in the outskirts of houses – substantially different from the 2.2% figure of national consumption of marijuana and the 0.9% use of cocaine or others, according to the 2011 National Survey on Addictions – , and the knowledge of drug sale in 23.4% of homes. The sad context of 2012 could decrease incentives of Peña Nieto’s government for a public security policy with structural changes.
It is worth highlighting that not everything presented on the 2013 ENVIPE is error-free. The calculation of victimization of enforced disappearances has a strong fault within its definition. Enforced disappearances include those made by some crime group, even when the definition by international organizations claims it’s any disappearance made by some authority. Even though INEGI specifies that its concept of disappearance is general, whenever it is taken as official data for international indexes, it will be considered as such. Regarding the 105,682 kidnappings in 2012 contrasted with 1,317 abduction reports of the Executive Secretariat of the National System of Public Security (SETEC) implies that Mexico has a “dark figure” (unreported crimes) of 98.8%, a number we previously assumed that proves the existence of impunity regarding this crime higher than 99%. This impunity leads for a criminal to commit such an atrocity due to the fact that it’s rational and profitable, for quantities that barely reach 5 thousand pesos.
Therefore, INEGI is taking a stance of counterweight regarding the state and federal government on security issues. Nevertheless, it is important to mention that its autonomy is not completely assured, given the fact that the President of the Institute as well as members of the Government Council (see article 67 of the Law of the National System of Information, Statistics and Geography) are appointed by the President and approved by the Senate. Members of the council can be reelected and when the risk of politicizing the organ comes, it will be a reality.
CIDAC
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